Friday, August 13, 2010

Rainfall and inflow update

We are getting *a lot* of rain, which is most certainly not what I expected for this year. We have had
490.4 mm of rain this year so far, which points to a final year tally of close to 750 mm. While la Nina may explain the rain for July and so far this August, it does not explain the very large amount of rain that we received early in the year.

Inflow so far is slightly under 48,000 megalitres. This indicates that we could well get over 70,000 megalitres for the year, which would be fantastic. However, it should again be noted that the Canberra average prior to the year 2000 was 180,000 megalitres ...

What does this amount of rainfall and inflow imply for my theory on the effect that climate change is having and will have on Canberra? Firstly, one year does not alter a trend. However, as I have laid out previously, a theory must be falsifiable for it to be of any value.

As my criteria lay out, if this year has rainfall of 850 mm then my theory will not likely be true. Further, if the next few years push the five-year average to 670 mm or greater then my theory will not likely be true. This will be something that I will keep an eye on.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Update on inflow/rainfall

We have now had seven months of the year. We have had well above average rainfall, over 400 mm, when the average is around 350 mm. This has given us inflows in the last seven months that are approaching the total inflows that we had last year. Currently, we sit on 42,800 megalitres; last year, we had 43,200 megalitres.

However, we are still well below the average inflow for this time of year, which is 110,000 megalitres.

One other point of interest: we are now climbing above the megalitre per millimetre rate from last year. This is an indication, perhaps, that the ground is getting wetter and some of the damage is healing. But it should be noted that we are still well below the average.

Over the next few months, La Nina is expected to have a strong influence. This means that it is more likely than not for there to be above average rainfall in the Canberra region. So my prediction for lower rainfall than 700 mm for this year may well be challenged. We will see. :)