Friday, August 13, 2010

Rainfall and inflow update

We are getting *a lot* of rain, which is most certainly not what I expected for this year. We have had
490.4 mm of rain this year so far, which points to a final year tally of close to 750 mm. While la Nina may explain the rain for July and so far this August, it does not explain the very large amount of rain that we received early in the year.

Inflow so far is slightly under 48,000 megalitres. This indicates that we could well get over 70,000 megalitres for the year, which would be fantastic. However, it should again be noted that the Canberra average prior to the year 2000 was 180,000 megalitres ...

What does this amount of rainfall and inflow imply for my theory on the effect that climate change is having and will have on Canberra? Firstly, one year does not alter a trend. However, as I have laid out previously, a theory must be falsifiable for it to be of any value.

As my criteria lay out, if this year has rainfall of 850 mm then my theory will not likely be true. Further, if the next few years push the five-year average to 670 mm or greater then my theory will not likely be true. This will be something that I will keep an eye on.

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